Do you understand the spread?
The thing I love most about sports is the spread. Not because I gamble, but because of the controversy the spread always brings up. Now for full disclosure my dream job would be to be the head of a sports book in Vegas. It is my perfect combo, math and sports, and I digress.
So back to my main point, the spread. The spread isn't a prediction on who will win, it is a number that makes sure the house always wins. You set the number at such a level the people are enticed to bet equally on both sides. For example in 2006 the early line in the Steelers vs Seahawks was 4 points and so many people bet so much on the Steelers, because they were so much better than Seattle, that the line had to be raised to 4.5.
For this year the first line on the game was 4 points in favor of the Colts, with the sports books thinking that would draw equal betting. However, lots of people think the Colts can cover 4 so they raised it to 4.5 and it got as high as 5.5. It leveled there because at 5.5 enough people bet the Saints to cover the bets on the Colts and equalibrium was reached. Now with the news that Dwight Freeney may not play the line has come down to 5, thus people are betting more on the Saints so the books had to bring down the line to get people to put money on the Colts again.
So in conclusion, the line is not a prediction, it is an integral part of an equation to ensure the house always wins. So go bet on the Saints or Colts and hope they cover!
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
So back to my main point, the spread. The spread isn't a prediction on who will win, it is a number that makes sure the house always wins. You set the number at such a level the people are enticed to bet equally on both sides. For example in 2006 the early line in the Steelers vs Seahawks was 4 points and so many people bet so much on the Steelers, because they were so much better than Seattle, that the line had to be raised to 4.5.
For this year the first line on the game was 4 points in favor of the Colts, with the sports books thinking that would draw equal betting. However, lots of people think the Colts can cover 4 so they raised it to 4.5 and it got as high as 5.5. It leveled there because at 5.5 enough people bet the Saints to cover the bets on the Colts and equalibrium was reached. Now with the news that Dwight Freeney may not play the line has come down to 5, thus people are betting more on the Saints so the books had to bring down the line to get people to put money on the Colts again.
So in conclusion, the line is not a prediction, it is an integral part of an equation to ensure the house always wins. So go bet on the Saints or Colts and hope they cover!
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
posted by Brian Dziewa at
12:48 PM
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